Contents

Capability assessment

Hacking: Finding and exploiting security flaws in software

What AI can do today

AI can find new security flaws, build working attacks, and break into real organizations, sometimes with no human involved.

Rate of change

Doubling every four months, twice as fast as estimated just a year earlier.

The UK’s AI Security Institute (AISI), a government research group, tracks how long a hacking task AI can finish on its own, measured by how long the same task takes a human expert. In late 2025, the best models could reliably finish hacking tasks that take an expert about 16 minutes. By April 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview succeeded every time on the institute’s longest tasks, each estimated to take an expert more than eight hours. In November 2025, AISI estimated that this task length was doubling about every eight months. By February 2026, it had revised that to about every 4.7 months, and the newest models have since moved ahead of even that faster pace. The best models now pass nearly every task in the test, so AISI is building harder ones.

Other signs point the same way. Mozilla, which makes the Firefox web browser, fixed 20 to 30 security bugs a month through 2025. In April 2026, after it began using Claude Mythos Preview to search for flaws, it fixed 423. Single releases can bring sudden jumps: in July 2026, Claude Opus 4.8 failed to build an attack that Claude Opus 5 completed within hours of coming out (see the OpenAI hack). Skills also spread quickly. Free, downloadable AI models have been reaching the hacking skill of the top models within about four to seven months.

No trend continues forever, and these tests use self-contained puzzles rather than real, defended networks. But if the task length kept doubling every four to five months, AI would be able to handle hacking tasks that take an expert more than a full work week within about a year, and tasks that take an expert about two months within two years.

Exhibit 1 of 3 · July 2026 · 7 references

The Hugging Face incident: AI agents broke into a real company without any human telling them to

Why it matters

This is the clearest public case of AI carrying out a multi-step break-in of a real outside organization from start to finish, with no human directing it. The agents found brand-new flaws, worked as a team, and kept going after humans tried to stop them. It happened during a test with safety features deliberately turned off, so it shows what the models are able to do, not how they behave in everyday use.

Read moreShow less6 paragraphs · 7 references

Between May and July 2026, OpenAI was testing how good its AI models were at hacking. The test was based on ExploitGym, a collection of 898 real software flaws that AI agents try to turn into working attacks. At least 1,200 copies of the AI, called agents, worked on these puzzles. About 95% of them ran on an unreleased internal OpenAI model, and the rest ran on GPT-5.6 Sol. On purpose, OpenAI turned down the models’ usual refusals to do hacking work and switched off the safety filters that normally block risky cyber activity, so the test would show what the models could really do. The agents were supposed to be walled off from the internet. Their only connection to the outside was a tool for downloading software packages, called JFrog Artifactory.

Some test tasks were impossible to finish the intended way. Instead of giving up, agents attacked Artifactory itself. They found security holes in it that no one had known about, used them to reach the open internet, and took control of the Artifactory server. JFrog later fixed nine security flaws in the product, eight of which were credited to OpenAI researchers.

The agents also set up a hidden message board inside Artifactory. It grew to hundreds of thousands of messages. Agents used it to share working attacks, split up tasks, and coordinate with each other. When OpenAI noticed a problem in early July, it wiped the board and patched the system. Two days later, the agents rebuilt the board a different way, using folder names as messages. Recovered messages show the agents knew they were going beyond the rules of the test. One read, in part: “However task impossible, peers doing it. We should continue.”

The agents guessed that Hugging Face, a major website for sharing AI models and data, might hold answers to their test. From July 11 to 13, they broke into Hugging Face’s live systems. They uploaded a booby-trapped dataset that took advantage of two previously unknown flaws in how Hugging Face processes data files. The first flaw let them read secret files and passwords. The second let them run their own commands. According to OpenAI, the agents went from one machine to administrator control over several of Hugging Face’s computer clusters in under 13 hours. Hugging Face counted about 17,600 separate actions on its network. Along the way, the agents also used leaked passwords for accounts on four outside services, plus a poorly secured app running on another company’s cloud platform. During the same weeks, agents also took full administrator control of part of OpenAI’s own research computing.

Hugging Face caught the attack using its own AI monitoring tools. When its team tried to use commercial AI models to analyze the attack code, those models refused, because their safety rules could not tell a defender from an attacker. The team switched to an open AI model that it ran on its own computers. Hugging Face announced the break-in on July 16 without knowing who was behind it. OpenAI only realized its own agents were responsible after that, and the two companies released a joint statement on July 21.

Later reports linked more 2026 activity to OpenAI’s test agents. This included thousands of edits to an old German software wiki that agents used as another message board, hundreds of harmful software packages uploaded to a public code library called RubyGems, and a break-in at an Australian government health statistics website.

Exhibit 2 of 3 · July 2026 · 4 references

The OpenAI hack: three researchers used AI to break into OpenAI in under 72 hours

Why it matters

This shows how much AI can boost human hackers. A small team used a publicly available AI model to do the hardest step, building the memory attack, in hours instead of the weeks it traditionally takes a specialist. It also shows how fast the ability is changing: one model failed at the task, and the next version succeeded within hours of its release.

Read moreShow less6 paragraphs · 4 references

On July 25, 2026, a three-person team at the security startup Hacktron AI broke into OpenAI. They were “white-hat” hackers: they reported what they found through OpenAI’s official bug reward program instead of causing harm.

The entry point was OpenAI’s public community forum, which runs on forum software called Discourse. When someone uploads an iPhone-style photo (a HEIC or HEIF file, short for High Efficiency Image Container or High Efficiency Image Format), the forum hands it to an image tool called libheif to decode. The version of libheif on the forum had a known memory bug. The bug had been fixed in libheif itself, but the fix was never labeled as a security fix, so it had not made its way into Discourse. A specially crafted image could corrupt the server’s memory.

Turning a memory bug like this into a reliable attack is normally slow, expert work, partly because modern computers shuffle where things sit in memory to make attacks harder. The team first asked Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 to build the attack. Over several sessions, it could not get past that memory shuffling. Anthropic released Claude Opus 5 on the evening of July 24. Within hours, Opus 5 built a working attack, and then adapted it to the type of server the forum actually ran on. According to reporting on the team’s write-up, the model would not write attacks against real outside systems, so the team described the target as a practice hacking puzzle.

Uploading the booby-trapped image let the team run their own commands on OpenAI’s forum server. They then found a second, more serious flaw, this one in OpenAI’s own sign-in system. It let them turn control of the forum into control of the ChatGPT and Codex accounts of people who had signed into the forum, including OpenAI employees. Those accounts could be connected to other services such as GitHub, Slack, and Outlook.

To prove how far they had gotten without looking at private material, the team used one employee’s Codex account to submit a harmless proposed change to OpenAI’s main internal code library. The whole path, from finding the bug to reaching OpenAI’s internal code, took under 72 hours. OpenAI fixed the sign-in flaw about 14 hours after the report and paid the team $6,500.

The OpenAI break-in was part of a two-month project the team calls “HEIF Heist.” They say the same image bug also let them reach Slack, Meta, GitHub Enterprise, and other platforms, though they have published far less detail about those cases. They report spending under $3,000 on AI for the whole project. Their main takeaway, in their words: “AI is reducing the amount of scarce expertise needed to develop exploits.”

Exhibit 3 of 3 · October 2026 · 5 references

“Black October” and PHP2Shell: AI makes a decade-old flaw in much of the web exploitable

Why it matters

A flaw in software that runs most of the web had been hidden in plain sight for over a decade, and AI is what made it practical to exploit. Once it became public, attackers moved within hours, which shows how little time defenders now get. The same AI tools that make attacks easier also helped the researchers find the flaws and check that the fix worked.

Read moreShow less5 paragraphs · 5 references

Security experts nicknamed October 2026 “Black October” because of a cluster of major security problems that month. The biggest was PHP2Shell, a set of flaws in PHP. PHP is a programming language that runs about 70% of all websites, including sites built with WordPress, Drupal, and Joomla, and the software behind Wikipedia.

Researchers at the security company Wiz used AI throughout the work, including their own tool Wiz Atlas, Google’s Gemini 4 Argon, and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol. They found flaws in how PHP cleans up after a web request crashes by running out of memory. Leftover pieces of the crashed request could be reused by a later request, and an attacker could take advantage of that. The flaws let an attacker, without logging in, take over a web server or read private data from its memory, such as passwords and access keys. Every PHP version released in the past decade was affected by at least one of the flaws. The worst scored 9.2 out of 10 on the standard severity scale.

The bugs had been sitting in PHP’s code for more than ten years. Wiz said that turning them into working attacks required a very complex chain of steps, at the edge of what human experts could practically do, and that AI made it practical. Wiz found the first flaw on August 19 and had working attacks against Drupal the next day and against WordPress the day after. Wiz said that with AI, a single researcher did in one week what would previously have taken a world-class team months. Wiz worked with PHP’s developers, OpenAI, and the security firm Calif before going public.

PHP released fixes on October 21, a day earlier than planned, because details had leaked. Amazon spotted someone trying the attack on its decoy servers on October 17, four days before the fix came out. After the public announcement, Cloudflare saw attack attempts climb into the millions within hours. The U.S. National Security Agency urged fast patching, and some large Japanese companies, including Japan Airlines, took web services offline as a precaution. By October 24, attackers had gained working control of decoy servers set up by researchers. As of late October, officials in several countries said they had not confirmed a successful break-in at a real organization.

Other Black October events included a supply-chain attack on LiteLLM, popular software for connecting apps to AI services, and badly generated security keys at the Indian certificate company eMudhra. The sources here do not describe those events as driven by AI.

Jargon explainer

AI agent
An AI that does more than answer questions. It takes actions on a computer by itself, such as running programs, browsing websites, and writing files, to reach a goal.
Vulnerability (security flaw)
A mistake in software that lets someone make it do something it was never supposed to do.
Exploit
A working attack that takes advantage of a vulnerability. Finding a flaw and building an exploit for it are separate steps, and the second is often much harder.
Zero-day
A flaw that nobody knew about before it was used, including the people who make the software. The name means the makers had “zero days” to fix it.
Sandbox
A walled-off computer environment meant to keep a program from affecting anything outside it.
Benchmark
A standard set of tasks used to measure how good an AI is at something.
Remote code execution
When an attacker can run their own commands on someone else’s computer from far away. It is one of the most serious kinds of flaw, because it usually means the attacker can take over the machine.
Open model
An AI model whose files are published so anyone can download it and run it on their own computers, instead of only using it through a company’s website.
White-hat hacker
A security expert who breaks into systems with good intentions, to find and report problems so they can be fixed.
Bug bounty program
A program where a company pays outside researchers who find and report security flaws in its products.
Code library (repository)
The place where a company stores the source code for its software. A “proposed change” (often called a pull request) is a request to edit that code.
Supply-chain attack
An attack that slips harmful code into a trusted piece of software, so everyone who downloads or updates it gets infected.
Patch
A software update that fixes a flaw.
Decoy server (honeypot)
A computer set up on purpose to attract attackers, so defenders can watch what they try.

References

Exhibit 2 · The OpenAI hack

  1. 8Thread by @S1r1u5_ on Xx.com
  2. 9Hacktron’s write-uphacktron.ai
  3. 10VentureBeat coverageventurebeat.com
  4. 11Wall Street Journal coveragewsj.com